it has breakout key resistance at 194-195 area ... look set to test 2 and beyond ... watch out for it
Picasso Low at work
15 years ago
Wednesday, 29 July 2009
Saturday, 25 July 2009
UOL
UOL could have complete it base building process .. resistance area at 355-359 , watch out for potential breakout ... ...
Tuesday, 21 July 2009
Noble - Update
Noble is trending up nicely to it key resistance area at around 184-185 ... a breakout of these level with good volume will propel it to test 2 dollars ... ... watch out for it ...
Saturday, 18 July 2009
Capital Land - Update( turn bullish ? )
Capital land do a double breakout in 3 trading days ... next immediate target is around 385... ...
Wednesday, 15 July 2009
Tuesday, 7 July 2009
STI Index - Update
Short term wise , STI index remain in bearish mode ... stay short till trend change ... next support appear to be recent low of 2211 ... ...Kep Corp
Kep Corp could be testing it next support at around 6.40 .. if the blue uptrend support line is broken down .. then it could test 6 dollars in the near term ...stay short unless it breakup the resistance line ... ...
Thursday, 2 July 2009
Capital Land - Update( short term bearish ? )
capital land seem to be losing strength in recent days ... short term wise it could proceed to touch the next support level at around 3.50 ... it will turn bullish again if can breakup 3.85 convincingly ... ...stay short ...
Wednesday, 1 July 2009
STI Index - Update
index hit resistance line , can initate short position on index . Exit short position if breakup resistance line ... ...Tuesday, 30 June 2009
American Cocker Spaniel
two beautiful dogs rear by my friend , Shawn .
from left , Cookie and Mickey
Friday, 26 June 2009
Thursday, 25 June 2009
Ausgroup - ripe for rebounce ???
look good for a rebounce at current level ... watch 53c support level though ..
Friday, 19 June 2009
Straits Asia
look for potential breakout of the greenline , support at 1.66 . Below i extract a report from DBS vickers .... ...
· Global coal price starts to pick up
· Strong FY09 outlook with promising FY10
· On track expansion execution
· BUY with TP of S$2.26
Coal price trends upward. Underpin by recent roundup in oil price, we believe that coal price is set to follow suit as demand for coal remains strong. Our channel checks with major coal producers in Indonesia suggest that demand for coal is still robust, as the increase in output so far in 2009 has been absorbed by the market. Latest coal price at US$71.9/ton is 15% higher than its lows back in March 2009. Main beneficiary of strengthening coal price. SAR’s FY09 earnings will remain strong, driven by improvement in sales volume (+17% y-o-y) and sales price (+13% y-o-y). SAR has sold and priced 6.5mn tons of its FY09 coal deliveries at US$114/ton, thus cementing our optimism that it will achieve a blended average sales price of US$78/ton for FY09.On track expansion plan. SAR management is continuing its effort to boost production by enhancing its infrastructure capacity. The company aims to achieve a capacity of 20mn tons p.a. and currently the installed infrastructure can attain production of 19mn tons p.a. BUY with TP of S$2.26. Our target price was derived using the DCF methodology with WACC assumption of 11.1%, risk premium 5% and risk freerate of 9.5%. Reiterate BUY.
Wednesday, 17 June 2009
Dow - Update
Dow could continue to correct to around 8200 level in the short term ... ... a break below the green line would support this view ...Friday, 12 June 2009
Wednesday, 10 June 2009
Capital Land
Cap land has correct from recent high of 415 to yesterday low of 362 . Is the short term correction over ? Watch closely for possible rebounce from current level . I extract the research report from Kim Eng Securties ;
"Asset allocation into China to increase to 40-45%At the recent launch of the Raffles City brand in Ningbo (formerly known as Capital Plaza), CapitaLand’s management announced its intention to increase the Group’s asset allocation into China to between 40-45% over the next few years, up from 26% in FY08. The Group remains on the lookout for distressed assets in China. RMB25b credit limit put in place To support funding needs for new and existing projects in China, CapitaLand also signed cooperation agreements with Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to obtain a credit limit allocation of up to RMB25b (S$5b) to fund CapitaLand’s various business operations across China. We view this as positive accreditation of CapitaLand’s presence in the Chinese market. Building up landbank in China CapitaLand’s launches in Foshan and Chengdu this year have been well-received, with small ASP increments with subsequent launches. CapitaLand is looking at replenishing its landbank in Shanghai and Beijing. According to the Straits Times, CEO Liew Mun Leong believes that Tianjin and Changsha also present a lot of opportunities. Singapore activities picking up speed CapitaLand had increased its stake in Gillman Heights from 50% to 60% in mid-May, and could possibly launch the new project for sale by 2H09. With construction costs easing, we estimate the breakeven price to be around $753 psf, with an ASP of about $900 psf. CapitaLand may also re-launch Latitude at Jalan Mutiara at an ASP of about $1600 psf.FY10 prospects looking better We view the move to increase its asset allocation into China positively, as CapitaLand already has a 15-year track record in the ever-growing Chinese market. Even sentiments in the Singapore residential property market have improved, suggesting the possibility of more sales in 2H09 and 2010. We reiterate our BUY recommendation, with a target price of $4.24, pegged to a 10% premium to our RNAV of $3.85. "
Monday, 8 June 2009
Tuesday, 2 June 2009
Article from 曾渊沧博士 - Jun09
六月份
各位朋友：
股市从3 月份开始强力反弹，至五月份更是连连破位而上。海峡时报一举破2000 点大
关，至五月底收市时，已达2329 点，比四月底上涨了21%，与3 月份的低位1455 点更是高出
整整60%。 3 个月上升60% 的确是惊人。
也因为升势太快，许多人都没有胆量入市，一心一意地等调整，希望调整来临才入市。
可是，一个月又一个月过去，像样的调整没出现，股价一天天上涨。
5 月16 日，我受新明日报之邀，参加他们与老板联合会合办的邮轮之旅，在邮轮上，
很高兴遇上好几位曾经在3 月15 日参加我的投资讲座，并依照我的建议，在3 月19 日美国一
宣布印钞票后就入市买股票。
这一个升浪之所以能升的这么急，其中一个重要的原因是许多人不相信牛市已经来临，
没有及时入市。因此，在股价不断上升的途中没有股可以沽出套利。一般人在买股票后，股价
上升20%至30%已经很高兴的卖掉，因而压抑股价的上升。但是，这一回因为很多人在股价上
升期入市，没有股可以卖，大行就可以一路不断地把股价往上推。5 月30 日香港新城电台主
办一个投资讲座，有趣的是：这个投资讲座的主题竟然是：[逆市增值]与目前股市全面上升的
情况格格不入。原来，这个讲座是一个多月前已经决定主办。一个多月前，新城电台的负责人
依然认为股市仍然处於熊市，所以才决定以[逆市增值]为主题来办座谈会。当然，座谈会当
天，主题也临时改变了，变成[牛市寻宝]的讲座了。
一向来，在参加座谈会后，我喜欢留下来与参加者聊一聊，了解一下散户最新心态。我
问了他们，这一浪买了股没有？多数人都说还没有，升得太急，想等调整才入市。於是人人问
我：几时股市会调整？
我的答案是：你一直在等调整，但一定会有一天，你忍不住了，你觉得再等下去就会失
去加入这轮大牛市的机会，於是你终於飞扑而入。很不幸，股市往往就会在你飞扑而入之后，
开始大调整。
我经常说，新加坡没有真正的大型的中资股票。现在有了。中国石油决定收购星加坡石
油，这是好消息。今后，新加坡石油就是中国石油在国际市场上的重要支柱。
02/06/2009
Dear Friends
The stock market started to rebound strongly from March onwards, and in May the STI
broke the 2000 barrier to reach 2329 points, 21% above the level at end of April, and 60%
above the 1455 points low in March. A 60% rise within 3 months is really frightening.
Many people did not have the courage to enter the market because the rise was too
rapid; they were waiting for the market downturn before entering. But there was no sign of
sizeable downturn; instead share prices kept going up as the months past.
I was invited by Sin Min Daily to join a ship cruise organised by Employers’ Union. On
the cruiser I met some of the people who had attended my March 15 talk, and who had
followed my suggestion to buy shares when US started printing currency notes on March 19.
One of the reasons for the rapid rising wave because many people did not enter the
market in time, not believing the bull market was already here. Consequently there was no
profit taking during the share price rising stages. After buying, most people would be happy
to sell their shares when market has arison 20% to 30%, thus hampering the rising trend due
to profit takeing. This time however, peopele did not have shares to sell, and therefore big
players could keep pushing up share prices. On 30 May, Hong Kong’s New City Television
Station organised an investment forum, main topics titled “Growth in a Depressing Market”
which was in contrast to the rising market scenario. The forum was arranged one month
earlier; New City Television Station was then thinking the market was bearish, and therefore
decided to use the above topics for the forum. On the day of the forum, the main theme was
changed to one “Searching treasures in a Bull Market”.
Habitually, I like to stay back and meet participants after a talk, and to understand
individual punters’ latest views. I asked them If they had purchased some stocks. Most
answed no, as the market was rising to fast, and would like to wait for market adjustment
before going in. They asked me when would the market adjust?
My answer is: you keep waiting for adjustment to come; it will come one day. Then you
can’t hold any longer, thinking that you might miss out the bull market; you jump into it, and
then after that the bull market retreats.
I often say that Singapore does not have a Chinese conglomerate stock listed in its
stock exchange. Now that Petrol China decides to acquire Singapore Petroleum
Co.Ltd.(SPC),SPC would play an important part in the international markets.
各位朋友：
股市从3 月份开始强力反弹，至五月份更是连连破位而上。海峡时报一举破2000 点大
关，至五月底收市时，已达2329 点，比四月底上涨了21%，与3 月份的低位1455 点更是高出
整整60%。 3 个月上升60% 的确是惊人。
也因为升势太快，许多人都没有胆量入市，一心一意地等调整，希望调整来临才入市。
可是，一个月又一个月过去，像样的调整没出现，股价一天天上涨。
5 月16 日，我受新明日报之邀，参加他们与老板联合会合办的邮轮之旅，在邮轮上，
很高兴遇上好几位曾经在3 月15 日参加我的投资讲座，并依照我的建议，在3 月19 日美国一
宣布印钞票后就入市买股票。
这一个升浪之所以能升的这么急，其中一个重要的原因是许多人不相信牛市已经来临，
没有及时入市。因此，在股价不断上升的途中没有股可以沽出套利。一般人在买股票后，股价
上升20%至30%已经很高兴的卖掉，因而压抑股价的上升。但是，这一回因为很多人在股价上
升期入市，没有股可以卖，大行就可以一路不断地把股价往上推。5 月30 日香港新城电台主
办一个投资讲座，有趣的是：这个投资讲座的主题竟然是：[逆市增值]与目前股市全面上升的
情况格格不入。原来，这个讲座是一个多月前已经决定主办。一个多月前，新城电台的负责人
依然认为股市仍然处於熊市，所以才决定以[逆市增值]为主题来办座谈会。当然，座谈会当
天，主题也临时改变了，变成[牛市寻宝]的讲座了。
一向来，在参加座谈会后，我喜欢留下来与参加者聊一聊，了解一下散户最新心态。我
问了他们，这一浪买了股没有？多数人都说还没有，升得太急，想等调整才入市。於是人人问
我：几时股市会调整？
我的答案是：你一直在等调整，但一定会有一天，你忍不住了，你觉得再等下去就会失
去加入这轮大牛市的机会，於是你终於飞扑而入。很不幸，股市往往就会在你飞扑而入之后，
开始大调整。
我经常说，新加坡没有真正的大型的中资股票。现在有了。中国石油决定收购星加坡石
油，这是好消息。今后，新加坡石油就是中国石油在国际市场上的重要支柱。
02/06/2009
Dear Friends
The stock market started to rebound strongly from March onwards, and in May the STI
broke the 2000 barrier to reach 2329 points, 21% above the level at end of April, and 60%
above the 1455 points low in March. A 60% rise within 3 months is really frightening.
Many people did not have the courage to enter the market because the rise was too
rapid; they were waiting for the market downturn before entering. But there was no sign of
sizeable downturn; instead share prices kept going up as the months past.
I was invited by Sin Min Daily to join a ship cruise organised by Employers’ Union. On
the cruiser I met some of the people who had attended my March 15 talk, and who had
followed my suggestion to buy shares when US started printing currency notes on March 19.
One of the reasons for the rapid rising wave because many people did not enter the
market in time, not believing the bull market was already here. Consequently there was no
profit taking during the share price rising stages. After buying, most people would be happy
to sell their shares when market has arison 20% to 30%, thus hampering the rising trend due
to profit takeing. This time however, peopele did not have shares to sell, and therefore big
players could keep pushing up share prices. On 30 May, Hong Kong’s New City Television
Station organised an investment forum, main topics titled “Growth in a Depressing Market”
which was in contrast to the rising market scenario. The forum was arranged one month
earlier; New City Television Station was then thinking the market was bearish, and therefore
decided to use the above topics for the forum. On the day of the forum, the main theme was
changed to one “Searching treasures in a Bull Market”.
Habitually, I like to stay back and meet participants after a talk, and to understand
individual punters’ latest views. I asked them If they had purchased some stocks. Most
answed no, as the market was rising to fast, and would like to wait for market adjustment
before going in. They asked me when would the market adjust?
My answer is: you keep waiting for adjustment to come; it will come one day. Then you
can’t hold any longer, thinking that you might miss out the bull market; you jump into it, and
then after that the bull market retreats.
I often say that Singapore does not have a Chinese conglomerate stock listed in its
stock exchange. Now that Petrol China decides to acquire Singapore Petroleum
Co.Ltd.(SPC),SPC would play an important part in the international markets.
Friday, 29 May 2009
Thursday, 28 May 2009
NOL
seem like there is a repeated pattern going on here ... could proceed to test recent high at around 167 level after breaking up 145 ...Monday, 25 May 2009
Sunday, 24 May 2009
Wednesday, 20 May 2009
Tuesday, 19 May 2009
STI Index - Update
i expect the correction to bring the index to 2040 .. however yesterday the index made a strong reversal after touching 2090 , and it break the short term downtrend channel also . As such , the short term correction might have ended and uptrend resume . Next immediate resistance is recent high of 2283 . If can break this resistance , potentially STI could even hit 2400 , follow by 2600 in the near term ... Monday, 18 May 2009
STI Index - Update
STI index currently in correction mode , and it look likely to correct more in coming days , watch out for support at 2040 , follow by 1960 .
Thursday, 14 May 2009
ST Engg
pz could bounce up from current level , watch support around 220 level .. breakdown could mean 200 ...Monday, 11 May 2009
Uni-Asia
potential breakout at 63c , this counter is highly speculative , so is not ideal for people with weak heart ... ...Saturday, 9 May 2009
Article from 曾渊沧博士
the following article is from Professor Chan (曾渊沧博士) ;
"Just as I predicted in my talk on 15 March, US started printing currency notes in March,
thence stock markets rose and continued to rise into early April. Then, came A H1N1 flu that brought about some deaths in Mexico by the end of April. We still remember vividly the impact of SARS epidemics in 2003, and I have been closely monitoring the impact of A H1N1 on stock markets. Before its certain happening on 24 April, STI closed at 1852.85. After the annoucement of the flu, the stock market was only slighly affected for 2 days, and recovered on the 3rd and 4th day. On 30 April STI broke through 1852.85 points to reach 1920.28 points. 1st May was a public holiday; and on 4th May STI shot up more than 100 points to break 2000 barrier. It looks like A H1N1 flu has little impact on stock markets.
When I searched through past records, Singapore market although affected by SARS in
2003, the flu epidemics did not affected Western countries like USA where stock markets still kept rising to great extent. At the time SARS also spread to US, with only few cases. Now A H1N1 started in Mexico, US is affected, but not severe. Its impact on Asia is minimal. Up to now, Singapore is not affected. Hong Kong had one case, but on 4th May Hong Kong market rose substantially, Hang Seng Index rose 5.54%, comparable to STI. Having had the experience of 2003, investors are confident that A H1N1 flu will not severely affect the economy, and 27 and 28 April were opportunate days to buy in at low prices.
I said on 15 March that the moment US started printing currency notes and banks easing
credit squeeze, bull market will raise its head. Now that US Government has begun printing notes, I believe banks will begin to lend out more freely. In fact it has already happened in China and England, China in particular. Banks in China have increased lending to almost 5 trillion yuen RMB. The President of Chinese Monetary Regulatory Authority Liu Ming Kang even said that lending has no upper limit; in other word lending may increase further. Chinese Government realizes that it is necessary to increase supply of currency notes, and I believe Chinese stock market will outshine other markets. If you have the opportunity to travel or on business trip to Hong Kong, it is no harm to open an internet stock account to buy some Chinese H shares listed in Hong Kong.
Singapore market is also good. Bank and industrial shares that have dropped so much are
worth collecting for the first wave of bull market to come.
Bull market lasts for a long time, it will not keep rising all the time, but subject to intervening reversals. You must have the patience and stamina to hold on to your holdings. Do not sell off for small gains, and do not hope that you are able to ride on top of the market waves, thinking that you could sell at the highest and buy back at the lowest."
"Just as I predicted in my talk on 15 March, US started printing currency notes in March,
thence stock markets rose and continued to rise into early April. Then, came A H1N1 flu that brought about some deaths in Mexico by the end of April. We still remember vividly the impact of SARS epidemics in 2003, and I have been closely monitoring the impact of A H1N1 on stock markets. Before its certain happening on 24 April, STI closed at 1852.85. After the annoucement of the flu, the stock market was only slighly affected for 2 days, and recovered on the 3rd and 4th day. On 30 April STI broke through 1852.85 points to reach 1920.28 points. 1st May was a public holiday; and on 4th May STI shot up more than 100 points to break 2000 barrier. It looks like A H1N1 flu has little impact on stock markets.
When I searched through past records, Singapore market although affected by SARS in
2003, the flu epidemics did not affected Western countries like USA where stock markets still kept rising to great extent. At the time SARS also spread to US, with only few cases. Now A H1N1 started in Mexico, US is affected, but not severe. Its impact on Asia is minimal. Up to now, Singapore is not affected. Hong Kong had one case, but on 4th May Hong Kong market rose substantially, Hang Seng Index rose 5.54%, comparable to STI. Having had the experience of 2003, investors are confident that A H1N1 flu will not severely affect the economy, and 27 and 28 April were opportunate days to buy in at low prices.
I said on 15 March that the moment US started printing currency notes and banks easing
credit squeeze, bull market will raise its head. Now that US Government has begun printing notes, I believe banks will begin to lend out more freely. In fact it has already happened in China and England, China in particular. Banks in China have increased lending to almost 5 trillion yuen RMB. The President of Chinese Monetary Regulatory Authority Liu Ming Kang even said that lending has no upper limit; in other word lending may increase further. Chinese Government realizes that it is necessary to increase supply of currency notes, and I believe Chinese stock market will outshine other markets. If you have the opportunity to travel or on business trip to Hong Kong, it is no harm to open an internet stock account to buy some Chinese H shares listed in Hong Kong.
Singapore market is also good. Bank and industrial shares that have dropped so much are
worth collecting for the first wave of bull market to come.
Bull market lasts for a long time, it will not keep rising all the time, but subject to intervening reversals. You must have the patience and stamina to hold on to your holdings. Do not sell off for small gains, and do not hope that you are able to ride on top of the market waves, thinking that you could sell at the highest and buy back at the lowest."
Friday, 8 May 2009
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