Article from 曾渊沧博士 - Jun09

六月份
各位朋友：
股市从3 月份开始强力反弹，至五月份更是连连破位而上。海峡时报一举破2000 点大
关，至五月底收市时，已达2329 点，比四月底上涨了21%，与3 月份的低位1455 点更是高出
整整60%。 3 个月上升60% 的确是惊人。
也因为升势太快，许多人都没有胆量入市，一心一意地等调整，希望调整来临才入市。
可是，一个月又一个月过去，像样的调整没出现，股价一天天上涨。
5 月16 日，我受新明日报之邀，参加他们与老板联合会合办的邮轮之旅，在邮轮上，
很高兴遇上好几位曾经在3 月15 日参加我的投资讲座，并依照我的建议，在3 月19 日美国一
宣布印钞票后就入市买股票。
这一个升浪之所以能升的这么急，其中一个重要的原因是许多人不相信牛市已经来临，
没有及时入市。因此，在股价不断上升的途中没有股可以沽出套利。一般人在买股票后，股价
上升20%至30%已经很高兴的卖掉，因而压抑股价的上升。但是，这一回因为很多人在股价上
升期入市，没有股可以卖，大行就可以一路不断地把股价往上推。5 月30 日香港新城电台主
办一个投资讲座，有趣的是：这个投资讲座的主题竟然是：[逆市增值]与目前股市全面上升的
情况格格不入。原来，这个讲座是一个多月前已经决定主办。一个多月前，新城电台的负责人
依然认为股市仍然处於熊市，所以才决定以[逆市增值]为主题来办座谈会。当然，座谈会当
天，主题也临时改变了，变成[牛市寻宝]的讲座了。
一向来，在参加座谈会后，我喜欢留下来与参加者聊一聊，了解一下散户最新心态。我
问了他们，这一浪买了股没有？多数人都说还没有，升得太急，想等调整才入市。於是人人问
我：几时股市会调整？
我的答案是：你一直在等调整，但一定会有一天，你忍不住了，你觉得再等下去就会失
去加入这轮大牛市的机会，於是你终於飞扑而入。很不幸，股市往往就会在你飞扑而入之后，
开始大调整。
我经常说，新加坡没有真正的大型的中资股票。现在有了。中国石油决定收购星加坡石
油，这是好消息。今后，新加坡石油就是中国石油在国际市场上的重要支柱。


02/06/2009


Dear Friends
The stock market started to rebound strongly from March onwards, and in May the STI
broke the 2000 barrier to reach 2329 points, 21% above the level at end of April, and 60%
above the 1455 points low in March. A 60% rise within 3 months is really frightening.
Many people did not have the courage to enter the market because the rise was too
rapid; they were waiting for the market downturn before entering. But there was no sign of
sizeable downturn; instead share prices kept going up as the months past.
I was invited by Sin Min Daily to join a ship cruise organised by Employers’ Union. On
the cruiser I met some of the people who had attended my March 15 talk, and who had
followed my suggestion to buy shares when US started printing currency notes on March 19.
One of the reasons for the rapid rising wave because many people did not enter the
market in time, not believing the bull market was already here. Consequently there was no
profit taking during the share price rising stages. After buying, most people would be happy
to sell their shares when market has arison 20% to 30%, thus hampering the rising trend due
to profit takeing. This time however, peopele did not have shares to sell, and therefore big
players could keep pushing up share prices. On 30 May, Hong Kong’s New City Television
Station organised an investment forum, main topics titled “Growth in a Depressing Market”
which was in contrast to the rising market scenario. The forum was arranged one month
earlier; New City Television Station was then thinking the market was bearish, and therefore
decided to use the above topics for the forum. On the day of the forum, the main theme was
changed to one “Searching treasures in a Bull Market”.
Habitually, I like to stay back and meet participants after a talk, and to understand
individual punters’ latest views. I asked them If they had purchased some stocks. Most
answed no, as the market was rising to fast, and would like to wait for market adjustment
before going in. They asked me when would the market adjust?
My answer is: you keep waiting for adjustment to come; it will come one day. Then you
can’t hold any longer, thinking that you might miss out the bull market; you jump into it, and
then after that the bull market retreats.
I often say that Singapore does not have a Chinese conglomerate stock listed in its
stock exchange. Now that Petrol China decides to acquire Singapore Petroleum
Co.Ltd.(SPC),SPC would play an important part in the international markets.