Article from 曾渊沧博士 - Nov'09

On October 29, the United States Bureau announced upturn in GDP in the third
quarter of 2009. After 4 consecutive quarters of decline, positive GDP growth is an
encouraging sign that US economy is moving in the right direction. However, US Stock
market only rose for a day. Some worried that the Federal government might take back the
government’s stimulus package and the others worried that the growth might not be
sustainable.
In actual facts, all these are excuses. The real reason is: there are too many
speculators. Lots of speculators, using high proportion of borrowing, speculate in stock
market. Any sign of changes in economic or expectation will cause them to sell immediately
in order to cut lost. Cut lost is the main reason for stock market moving up and down rapid.
W
ho are these speculators? They are mainly finance companies, who US Federal
government lent money to during 2008 economic crisis. The US government will not let they
collapsed so as to prevent world depression. Lehman Brothers collapsed had caused
financial crisis. What will happen if Citibank, AIG bankrupt? That will not just only financial
crisis.
The top management in US financial sectors, especially investment banks was
drawing very high pay and bonus. The reason is: they generated lots of income for their
companies. Today, these companies are borrowing money from the US government. If they
use government money to distribute bonus, the US tax-payers will oppose the government
from lending money to them. Therefore, there is an agreement between the government and
these finance companies. The condition for government loans is that they are not allowed to
distribute bonus. The management has no choice but to accept the offer. The only way to
obtain bonus is through gambling. If they win, they can repay loans to the government and
the government has no control over bonus distribution. If they lose, they can always borrow
money from the government and continue to play. They are big enough that the US
government will not allow them to collapse.
Because of speculation, the stock market fluctuated rapidly. Since July till now, Straittimes
index move up and down but still within the range of 200 point. We may consider focus
on China stock market. On October 30, China launched biotech VCs, new tech stock market.
All stock up by almost 70% in a day. These companies are mainly hi-tech, environment
related, bio-tech and new energy stock. I foresee Singapore may follow in a short period.
SM Goh Chok Tong visited Fujian Province in PRC last week. There are many
Singaporean, including SM Goh, their parents migrated from Fujian. Today, the relationship
between Taiwan and Fujian is getting better, China Government is planning to develop
Fujian as most of the Taiwanese also migrated from Fujian and having the same languages.
Therefore, I think Fujian stock may become more popular.