Short term wise Kep Land might have hit a top , price could come down and consolidate at around 128 level . Resistance at 154 . Stay short .
Below I extract some FA stuff from GK Goh :
" KepLand's share price has recovered strongly since early
March. Despite some signs of risk appetite returning, we hold
the view that fundamentals have not changed. KepLand's office
exposure remains its key bugbear, as rents continue to chase
a bottom and cap rates move closer to our base case of 6.5%.
We believe there is an above-average chance it may choose to
raise fresh equity, to fund its capex and keep net gearing at
a more manageable level. Including potential write-downs, we
estimate its net gearing could rise to 0.8x from 0.5x by
end-FY09. Our FY09 core EPS has been raised by 1.4% while
FY10-11 EPS estimates have been lowered by 26-29% as we
assume KepLand's new inventories will transact at 50% below
peak prices going forward. We lower our end-FY09 RNAV
estimate by 25% to S$2.50 on lower selling price assumptions.
Our target price drops to S$1.25 from S$1.35, on a new 50%
discount (previously 60%) applied to RNAV. We believe it is
still too early to take risks on the stock. Maintain
Underperform. "
" KepLand's share price has recovered strongly since early
March. Despite some signs of risk appetite returning, we hold
the view that fundamentals have not changed. KepLand's office
exposure remains its key bugbear, as rents continue to chase
a bottom and cap rates move closer to our base case of 6.5%.
We believe there is an above-average chance it may choose to
raise fresh equity, to fund its capex and keep net gearing at
a more manageable level. Including potential write-downs, we
estimate its net gearing could rise to 0.8x from 0.5x by
end-FY09. Our FY09 core EPS has been raised by 1.4% while
FY10-11 EPS estimates have been lowered by 26-29% as we
assume KepLand's new inventories will transact at 50% below
peak prices going forward. We lower our end-FY09 RNAV
estimate by 25% to S$2.50 on lower selling price assumptions.
Our target price drops to S$1.25 from S$1.35, on a new 50%
discount (previously 60%) applied to RNAV. We believe it is
still too early to take risks on the stock. Maintain
Underperform. "
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